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Security situation under military juntas

admin — Thu, 12 Jun 2025 08:26:34 +0000

In 2024, military juntas in Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali, and Chad all postponed or derailed promised elections to complete the transition to democratic civilian governance. In doing so, they deprived citizens of the choice to determine the trajectory of their countries.

This perpetuates a pattern whereby many African leaders who circumvent term limits have otherwise taken power through military coup. These juntas have not only prevented a return to participatory governance, they are also associated with greater levels of repression against independent political actors, deteriorating security, and increasing economic hardship.

Deaths have tripled since 2020 under the control of the Sahelian military. In Niger, deaths associated with extremist groups are expected to increase by 60% in 2024. Militant groups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger are increasingly controlling territory. Given the dramatic decline in press freedom since the coups, the number of violent events and deaths is certainly underestimated.

Influence of external actors on the decline of democracy in Africa

External authoritarian actors, primarily Russia, China, and increasingly Iran, have contributed to democratic backsliding in Africa in recent years. These external actors have attempted, through disinformation, direct interference in elections, deployment of mercenaries, support for unconstitutional power grabs, and undermining the United Nations, to strengthen and normalize authoritarian governments while crippling popular sovereignty to expand their influence in Africa.

Russia has attempted to undermine democracy in at least 28 countries across the continent, most frequently through the use of information manipulation and political interference. These tools have notably been deployed in Nigeria and Kenya to try to hijack protests and undermine trust in government and democracy.

In recent years, China has further promoted in Africa the norms of its dominant party model, in which the state, media, and military are subordinate to the party. The opening of China’s first political school in Africa, with additional training for African party leaders, and efforts to shape African media landscapes also contribute to this trend.

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Security Trends In Africa In 2024

admin — Thu, 12 Jun 2025 08:19:05 +0000

A snapshot of Africa’s security trends in 2024 illustrates the cumulative impact of unresolved conflicts, violent extremist insurgencies, authoritarian external actors seeking to exert influence, and natural disasters. Collectively, these trends highlight the growing pressures on the management capacities of affected countries and regions and the widening divide between stable and unstable regions.

Violence by Islamist groups in the Sahel

Violent events and deaths involving militant Islamist groups remain at record levels in 2024, the result of record levels of violence recorded in the Sahel. More than half of the attacks by militant Islamist groups in Africa occurred in the Sahel in 2024, and reported deaths there have tripled since 2020 to around 11,000. Groups such as the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) coalition and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara have stepped up their attacks and, as they push south and west, they are gaining control over more territory in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.

Violence against civilians by junta security forces and their paramilitary partners, including Russia’s Africa Corps, has also increased. The number of attacks on civilians by these security actors increased by 76 percent between 2022 and 2024 (from approximately 230 to 400 attacks). Over the past three years, these forces have killed approximately 4,740 people. This year, Sahelian military juntas and their allied militias killed more civilians (2,430) than militant Islamist groups (2,050).

The coastal countries of West Africa are experiencing spillover violence from the Sahelian countries. More than 500 violent events occurred within 50 km of their borders in 2024, compared to only 50 in 2020.

Forced displacement in Africa and its growing crisis

The number of forcibly displaced Africans has increased for the thirteenth consecutive year, surpassing 45 million people; a 14% increase from last year. 14 of the 15 countries with the largest number of forcibly displaced people are in conflict.

With 3% of its total population forcibly displaced, Africa has both the highest proportion and absolute number of forcibly displaced people of any other major region in the world.

The forcibly displaced population in Africa has doubled since 2018. Three-quarters of these individuals (34.5 million) are displaced within their own countries. Africa now hosts more than 48% of the world’s internally displaced people (IDPs).

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Persistent notable conflicts in africa

admin — Wed, 11 Jun 2025 11:23:03 +0000

Conflict in Sudan

The conflict between rival military factions in Sudan has resulted in the world’s largest displacement crisis. More than 11.5 million people are internally displaced and more than 2.3 million have fled the country since the war began in April 2023. Food shortages and famine are estimated to be killing hundreds of people every day. An estimated 3 million people are also facing acute food insecurity this year.

Sudan’s implosion has reverberated across the already fragile region, multiplying conflict and instability in neighboring countries. Instability in Sudan only further complicates internal conflicts in Libya, Chad, the Central African Republic, South Sudan, and Ethiopia.

Foreign powers including the United Arab Emirates, Russia, Iran, and Egypt are stoking conflict in Sudan by deploying drones, munitions, mercenaries, and smuggling resources. This scramble for regional influence threatens to transform Sudan into a collection of client states where civilian voices and popular sovereignty are sidelined.

Protecting the Congo Basin from Illegal Logging

The Congo Basin rainforests account for about 70% of Africa’s forest cover, making it the world’s largest terrestrial carbon sink. The Congo Basin is critical to the water cycles that sustain the Nile Basin and West Africa. But only 14% of its area has protected status, and the basin has lost 1% of its forest cover since 2001, largely due to unregulated commercial and mining logging. Congo Basin forests are declining by 1–5% per year.

Protecting the Congo Basin, its ecological resources, and the millions of livelihoods it supports is a regional security imperative with continental and global implications. Transnational criminal networks are taking advantage of the region’s weak forest management to plunder this rich resource.

Improving the management and protection of the Congo Basin’s tropical forests will require improved knowledge of the forest domain and a realignment of incentives for local communities, government officials, and international logging interests.

Maritime Vulnerability in the Red Sea and Western Indian Ocean

More than 100 sabotage and pirate attacks on ships in the Red Sea and the western Indian Ocean have exposed the vulnerability of African maritime security. Attacks by the Houthi militia and Somali pirates are the main culprits behind the disruptions, which have disrupted shipping, sunk ships, and damaged undersea cables.

As a result of these attacks, African citizens have borne the cost in the form of delays, more expensive consumer goods, disruptions to local economies, and pollution of waterways from sunken munitions and ships in the Red Sea and western Indian Ocean.

The maritime security crisis in the Red Sea illustrates not only how actions by non-state actors can affect global economic dynamics but also that Africa is at the heart of global shipping.

Piracy and armed robbery at sea, however, declined in the Gulf of Guinea in 2024 to their lowest level in years, largely due to increased patrols and collaboration among members of the Yaoundé Protocol on Maritime Security.

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States and Dependencies in Contemporary Africa

admin — Wed, 11 Jun 2025 08:35:17 +0000

In 1914, due to the rise of colonial empires, the “dark continent” had only two sovereign states, Abyssinia (or Ethiopia) and Liberia. Since the Second World War, the number of independent African states has continued to increase, from 4 in 1945 to 27 in 1960, reaching 53 in 1993 and 54 in 2011.

The borders of African states are largely the result of colonization. As for the grouping of different countries into sub-regions, it is used more for practical reasons than a historical reality.

Regions of Africa according to the UN85:

We generally distinguish:

North Africa, bordered to the south by the Sahara, inhabited by predominantly Arab and Berber populations;
Sub-Saharan Africa, itself subdivided into four sub-regions:
- West Africa,
- East Africa,
- Central Africa;
- Southern Africa consists of all the territories located south of the equatorial forest.

African states are part of borders that largely stem from colonization, endorsed and protected by the OAU in 1963.

They are often described as artificial and, as such, considered causes of conflict, incoherent due to their delimitation of politically weak spaces, and illegitimate because they do not reflect prior ethnic or historical realities. Moreover, the notion of a demarcated border is culturally foreign to sub-Saharan Africa, especially in societies with ‘diffuse power,’ where social organization is decentralized, and governance is shared. In these contexts, land is not viewed as a commodity to be owned, and the Western-style nation-state remains an imported concept.

However, some argue that these borders are not entirely artificial, with examples like the Niger-Nigeria border, which roughly follows the contours of an earlier caliphate.

The economic curse of borders is often overstated. Ethnic ties and shared vehicular languages frequently extend beyond officially recognized (de jure) boundaries, leading to significant internal movement, especially in cross-border trade among members of the same ethnic group. This trade benefits formal states through customs revenues, which can account for as much as 30% to 70% of some national budgets. However, the lack of infrastructure leads to long waiting times at the border, contributing to high transaction costs. Ultimately, African borders are porous and easy to cross, whether legally or illegally, presenting opportunities for economic operators.

As for ethnic conflicts, they are largely independent of borders, remaining sometimes internal to a country, and sometimes cross-border depending on local configurations.

Between 1963 and 2022, the International Court of Justice ruled on eight border disputes in Africa, such as the Aozou Strip in Chad in 1994 and the Bakassi Peninsula in Cameroon in 2002, while other cases are piling up, such as the question of the sovereignty of the island of Mbanié filed in 2021.

In the 2010s and 2020s, border conflicts arose over the control of natural resources, such as between Kenya and Somalia over fish resources or between Equatorial Guinea and Gabon over hydrocarbons, as well as secessionist conflicts such as the one over South Sudan. In 2022, large territories still have no defined status, such as the Ilemi Triangle and the Halayeb Triangle. Former colonial powers are sometimes still at odds with their former colonies. This is the case for Spain and Morocco over the cities of Melilla and Ceuta, France and Madagascar over the Scattered Islands, and the United Kingdom and Mauritius over the Chagos Archipelago.

In 2021, in North and West Africa, 60% of victims of violent events were less than 100 km from a border, particularly due to the presence of transnational armed groups, such as jihadists. The further away from these areas, the lower the number of deaths.

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2024 Elections in Africa

admin — Wed, 11 Jun 2025 08:08:47 +0000

This election year, at the beginning of which 19 elections were anticipated, resulted in a mixed assessment.

Authorities in five countries, including the juntas of Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea, felt no obligation to hold elections that they had nonetheless promised to tarnish this year. In six other countries, the elections that did take place were such staged exercises that their outcome could not be considered to pass any threshold of freedom, justice or the outcome could be considered legitimate.

Eight African countries and territories held competitive elections, including Senegal, South Africa, Mauritania, Botswana, Mauritius, Namibia, Ghana, and Somaliland, an unrecognized territory. Incumbent presidents retained power in three of these countries, while the opposition prevailed in the rest. Each of the transfers of power occurred peacefully, sending a powerful message about the prospects for power-sharing and democratic renewal on the continent.

Notable among these transitions: the first transfer of power between parties since independence in Botswana and the creation of a united transitional government in South Africa where the African National Congress lost its absolute majority in Parliament.

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