AFRICA AND ITS GALLOPING DEMOGRAPHY
Estimating the African population before 1950 is a complex task due to the lack of reliable data during the colonial period and even more so, during the pre-colonial period. All figures before 1950 are estimates based on incomplete data and projections.
It has long been believed that the African population density before 1850 was low compared to other continents and increased rapidly with the onset of colonization in the mid-19th century. However, some researchers today argue that the population was relatively large and that its growth rate was low. From 140 million individuals in 1850, the population is thought to have remained relatively stable until 1920. After that, it increased more rapidly, reaching 280 million in 1960 and 800 million in 2000.
The impact of slavery in Africa before 1850 varied across regions. While African population growth generally slowed, slavery led to the decline of sub-populations in the most affected areas. According to Patrick Manning, the relatively low growth rates in the 19th century and the higher estimates of the size of the African population in the pre-colonial period imply that the negative impact of slavery on these populations was less severe than previously estimated. The nature of the populations subjected to slavery, often young and predominantly female, helps explain the impact on population growth.
The end of the slave trade coincided with colonial conquest. Colonial regimes, particularly those of France and Belgium, are believed to have caused population declines, primarily due to the spread of disease, often facilitated by both African and European colonial officials. In some areas, such as coastal regions, increased productivity led to increased population growth. During the colonial period, Africans experienced dramatic changes in living conditions, accelerated growth rates, abrupt changes in migration patterns, and the dramatic beginnings of urbanization. Life expectancy, though low relative to other regions, increased impressively. Between the ages of 20 and 25, in the early 19th century, life expectancy at birth had increased to 36.7 years for the period 1950–1954.
African population in the 20th and 21st centuries
Africa is the continent whose population in percentage terms has increased the most since the beginning of the 20th century and whose natural growth rate, with 2.5% in 2015, is the highest. Estimated at 133 million inhabitants in 1900, or 8.1% of the world population, the population of Africa increased in 1950 to 228 million, or 9.1%, then to 808 million in 2000, or 13.2%, and to 1.1 billion in 2012, or 16% of the world population. According to UN estimates, the population of Africa could be 2.5 billion in 2050, or 25% of the world population, and 4.4 billion in 2100, or 39% of the world population. Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Ethiopia will be among the ten most populous countries on the planet by 2050.
However, this is only a form of catching up, since in 2030 the continent's population will return to the proportion, around 20% of the world total, that it represented in the 16th century before the demographic traumas of the slave trade and colonization.
Age pyramid and its consequences
African society is extremely young. In 2004, one in two Africans was under the age of 20. By 2012, 70% of the continent’s population was under 30, and in 2006, 44% of the population was under 15.
This demographic growth is likely to have contrasting effects depending on whether or not we adopt a Malthusian and Afro-pessimistic point of view. Thus, in 2015, the World Bank presented a report entitled "The African Demographic Transition: Dividend or Disaster?" The report states that part of Asia experienced a similar situation before its demographic transition and the economic take-off of the Asian tigers. A positive example is that the concentration of populations in cities creates solvent markets for local agriculture. Or it can be noted that demographic growth is a benefit for the development of the mobile phone market, which was the basis for the continent's rapid mobile banking that allows Africa to be the world champion of mobile phone payment. Population growth is therefore also that of domestic consumption and the economic development which accompanies it, notably thanks to the middle classes which are growing faster (3.1%) than the population as a whole (2.6%).
In this context, the demographic transition of the continent, which has begun in some countries (Kenya, Senegal, Botswana, etc.), if confirmed, is a potential opportunity thanks to the reduction in the dependency rate that it would bring about with a larger active population than that of the inactive. Some countries (Ghana, Ivory Coast, Malawi, Mozambique and Namibia) have already been identified as being on this path.
Malthusian positions, conversely, invite us to consider population growth as a burden by speaking of demographic suicide, arguing that the demographic transition is far from being globally achieved and that dependency rates are, for the time being, extremely high. Similarly, the investments, particularly in education, which will have to accompany the demographic transition to transform it into a real opportunity, are considerable. The population, in any case larger, will have to be crowded together because even if the overall density of the continent is low (36 inhabitants/km2), certain areas are uninhabitable, which means that in certain places in Nigeria, the most populated country on the continent, we see densities of around 190 inhabitants/km2 and 420 inhabitants/km2 in Rwanda, and that 62% of urban dwellers in sub-Saharan Africa live in precarious neighborhoods. Conversely, North Africa is the region with the lowest proportion of urban population living in slums (13%).
A key feature of the continent is that its undeniable economic growth benefits its people little. This is the concept of growth without development, proposed by George Ayittey.
Birth and mortality rates in Africa
The fertility rate (number of children per woman) for sub-Saharan Africa is 4.7 in 2018, the highest in the world. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had a fertility rate (average number of children) above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27.1% of live births worldwide. By 2021, sub-Saharan Africa will account for 29% of global births.
Population growth is obviously linked to the fertility rate, which in Africa is the highest in the world with 4.7 children per woman for the period 2010-2015, compared to a world average of 2.5. While most African countries have a high birth rate, they also face very high infant mortality. In 2013, two African countries had an infant mortality rate of over 100‰ and 34 had a rate of over 50‰. Furthermore, the four countries with the lowest life expectancy in the world in 2012 were all African.
AIDS became the leading cause of death in Africa at the end of the 20th century. This was still the case in 2007, when UNAIDS estimated that 22 million people were infected in Africa. In 2013, out of 35 million people infected, 24.7 million lived in sub-Saharan Africa, 58% of whom were women. HIV killed 1.3 million people on the continent in 2009, but it killed 1.4 million in 2001. However, between 2005 and 2013, new infections fell by 33% in sub-Saharan Africa.
Infant mortality has fallen by 30% in 20 years and life expectancy has increased by 15.4 years since 1950. But in sub-Saharan Africa, 1 in 8 children dies before the age of 5, compared with 1 in 143 in developed countries.
Health conditions are largely independent of the economy. Despite an income level five times lower, Ethiopia, ($573/inhab.450), thanks to its policy in this area, has better health indicators than Nigeria ($3,203/inhab.): infant mortality 47‰ (78‰ in Nigeria), maternal mortality 350‰ (630‰ in Nigeria). In the same way, aridity is correlated with malnutrition but, for political reasons, the latter is very prevalent in the Democratic Republic of Congo, yet one of the wettest countries on the planet.
For more information:
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portail:Afrique
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Africa
https://journals.openedition.org/etudesafricaines/
https://etudes-africaines.cnrs.fr/
https://www.afdb.org/fr/documents-publications/economic-perspectives-en-afrique-2024
